Publications of Goldthau, A.

The Global Energy Challenge Environment, Development and Security

The Global Energy Challenge provides a comprehensive overview of today’s three most topical energy challenges, or the “energy trilemma”: climate change, energy poverty and energy security. The book addresses the rise of energy geopolitics and the related concerns surrounding “energy weapons” and the “race for resources.” Also discussed is the appropriate role of markets, the subject of a debate that has divided advocates and critics of free market solutions to energy problems. The prospect of a low-carbon transition is analyzed in the context of inertia in the energy system and of debates on the role of technology and innovation in addressing energy problems. The book also considers shifts in global energy governance, such as the emergence of new global institutions, and the role of non-state actors, including business interests, in confronting energy challenges.

The Russian Energy Outlook

This AEI, report titled “Too much energy? Asia at 2030″ strives to shed light on these uncertainties with the aim of providing realistic scenarios for the global energy outlook to 2030. The report’s Russia chapter finds that Russia will remain one of the world’s top energy producers and exporters, but its energy future will hinge on several factors outside of Moscow’s control, including Western energy sanctions and European regulations. Should Europe shift away from dependence on Russian energy, the Kremlin will feel more pressure to court China.

Addressing the Russian Energy Challenge: Why Regulation Trumps Geopolitics

Europe’s dependence on Russian gas has raised security concerns, especially in response to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. But this threat is overestimated. The truth is that the EU market, a large market with relatively high prices, is very important for Gazprom. What is more, Europe’s regulatory apparatus is well-equipped to deal with market power and discriminatory pricing, which is at the core of the real problem Russian gas poses to Europe. Making necessary infrastructure investments to connect still partitioned national gas markets, completing the single market for energy in order to enhance resilience against external shocks, and further empowering the Commission — the EU’s competition watchdog — to comprehensively govern the EU energy market will alleviate the valid security concerns and force Russia to play by European rules. This needs to take priority in the proposed Energy Union. Because the EU is much better at regulatory politics than at playing geopolitics, it should push the former and abstain from the latter, particularly in the case of Russian gas.

Rethinking the governance of energy infrastructure: Scale, decentralization and polycentrism

Providing societies with reliable energy services, fighting energy poverty and mitigating climate change entail a crucial infrastructure component. Both the energy access and the low carbon challenge require more decentralized energy solutions and a change in the energy infrastructure paradigm. Yet, physical energy infrastructure co-evolves with socio-economic institutions, actors and social norms. This may produce inertia against change. The energy challenge also requires solutions at multiple scales and may entail elements of common pool resource problems. Therefore, the governance of energy infrastructure needs to be polycentric. This allows for contextualization, experimentation and innovation. The article concludes by sketching routes of further research into the energy infrastructure governance nexus in social science research.

A liberal actor in a realist world? The Commission and the external dimension of the single market for energy

This article investigates the European Commission's external energy policy through the lens of the regulatory state. It argues that because of the nature of its institutions, policy tools and resources, the Commission remains a liberal actor even as the world leaves the benign pro-market environment of the 1990s and becomes more mercantilist – or ‘realist’. The article tests seven hypotheses related to two key challenges as perceived by the Commission: building energy markets, and making them work. It finds that the Commission seeks to project the single market beyond its jurisdiction to deal with transit infrastructure problems; extend international regimes to cover energy trade; deal with monopolists such as Gazprom through classical competition policy; and fix global energy market failures with clear regulatory state tools. Importantly, however, some actions by the Commission can be seen as an attempt to counterbalance external actors, or as second-best efforts to address energy market failures.

The 2014 Ukraine-Russia crisis: Implications for energy markets and scholarship

While the 2014 Ukrainian crisis is far from over, policy debates surrounding the standoff between Russia and the United States and Europe already offer some important lessons on the gap between the policy world and the realities of energy markets. In this communication, we will discuss three policy proposals proposed between February and April 2014 as an illustration of the aforementioned mismatch, and explain their broader implications. As we will show, while the energy world is entering the next phase with renewed emphasis on renewables and energy efficiency, and markets for energy becoming increasingly global and interconnected, a substantial number of politicians and foreign policy makers seem to be stuck in a Cold War paradigm. Though things do not necessarily bode well from a political standpoint, the observed tendencies may offer intriguing opportunities for research related to energy policy far beyond the traditional realms of economics and geopolitics.

Sieg der EU über Moskaus Pipeline-Politik

Die Bürokraten haben Putin in die Knie gezwungen, nicht die Diplomaten Der Kreml hat South Stream gestoppt, eines der wichtigsten Gas-Infrastrukturprojekte und Kernpunkt der russischen Pipeline-Diplomatie. Dies ist ein Erfolg europäischer Energie-Außenpolitik, und dieser ist in Brüssel zu verorten. Nun ist klar: Europas Antwort auf Russlands Energie-Geopolitik liegt in der Binnenmarktregulierung

Handbook of Global Energy Policy

This is the first handbook to provide a global policy perspective on energy, bringing together a diverse range of international energy issues in one volume. It maps the emerging field of global energy policy both for scholars and practitioners; the focus is on global issues, but it also explores the regional impact of international energy policies. It accounts for the multi-faceted nature of global energy policy challenges and broadens discussions of these beyond the prevalent debates about oil supply. It analyzes global energy policy challenges across the dimensions of markets, development, sustainability, and security, and identifies key global policy. challenges for the future. It comprises newly-commissioned research by an international team of scholars and energy policy practitioners.

The politics of natural gas development in the European Union

Part of a study directed by the Center for Energy Studies at Rice University’s Baker Institute, Harvard University’s Geopolitics of Energy Project at the Kennedy School and the University of California, Davis, Graduate School of Management.

A Public Policy Perspective on Global Energy Security

Despite an emerging literature on global energy governance, there so far is no extensive intellectual rationale for it. This article seeks to fill this gap by putting forward a public policy framework to analyze global energy. With that lens, energy security relates to problems of market failure at a transnational scale. These may occur due to imperfect competition; negative externalities; lack of information; or the presence of public goods. It is argued that major global energy risks such as oil price volatility, lack of transport infrastructure, and insufficient upstream investments can be convincingly conceptionalized as markets failing to provide for a crucial good—energy security. This article thus proposes market failure as an analytical justification of and as an intellectual foundation for further research in global energy governance, and sketches possible research agendas in that field.

Why America Can Make or Break A New Global Gas World

America is the make or break nation to shift gas prices based on gas (rather than oil) fundamentals in the next ten years, but if we manage to get that far, be very careful what we wish for. Producer states could end up being the ultimate winners in a globalized gas world…

Global Energy Governance : The New Rules of the Game

The global market for oil and gas resources is rapidly changing. Three major trends – the rise of new consumers, the increasing influence of state players, and concerns about climate change – are combining to challenge existing regulatory structures, many of which have been in place for a half-century. "Global Energy Governance" analyzes the energy market from an institutionalist perspective and offers practical policy recommendations to deal with these new challenges. Much of the existing discourse on energy governance deals with hard security issues but neglects the challenges to global governance. "Global Energy Governance" fills this gap with perspectives on how regulatory institutions can ensure reliable sources of energy, evaluate financial risk, and provide emergency response mechanisms to deal with interruptions in supply. The authors bring together decisionmakers from industry, government, and civil society in order to address two central questions: What are the current practices of existing institutions governing global oil and gas on financial markets? How do these institutions need to adapt in order to meet the challenges of the twenty-first century? The resulting governance-oriented analysis of the three interlocking trends also provides the basis for policy recommendations to improve global regulation.

Imported Oil and U.S. National Security

In 2007, on a net basis, the United States imported 58 percent of the oil it consumed. This book critically evaluates commonly suggested links between these oil imports and U.S. national security. The major risk to the United States posed by reliance on oil is the economic costs of a major disruption in global oil supplies. On the other hand, the study found no evidence that oil exporters have been able to use embargoes or threats of embargoes to achieve key political and foreign policy goals. Oil revenues are irrelevant for terrorist groups' ability to launch attacks. The study also assesses the economic, political, and military costs and benefits of potential policies to alleviate challenges to U.S. national security linked to imported oil.

Domestic Trends in the United States, China, and Iran : Implications for U.S. Navy Strategic Planning

The U.S. Navy faces uncertainty about the degree to which it will have to prepare for a high-end future conflict against a powerful, well-armed opponent versus the so-called Long War against rogue nations and terrorist organizations. The answer depends to a large extent on the evolution of U.S. relations with China and Iran and the future of the United States itself. To help the Navy understand how critical near-, mid-, and far-term trends in the United States, China, and Iran might influence U.S. security decisions in general and the Navy's allocation of resources in particular, RAND examined emerging nonmilitary trends in each of the three countries. The authors investigated current and projected domestic developments in the areas of demographics, economics, energy consumption, the environment, and education. They also examined each country's relations with its so-called near abroad to determine how much of a challenge each of the three nations (plus Japan and Russia) will experience in their own immediate “neighborhoods.”The authors conclude that the Navy will have to balance its investment decisions around the following major findings: * There will be less tolerance for costly, “big-ticket” defense projects in the United States; the Navy's “blue-green” mix will be affected. * China will remain the Navy's greatest potential challenge, but Iran will continue to defy the United States in the Middle East. * Further cooperation with key allies in the Pacific and the Greater Middle East will be required, as will an enduring defense commitment in the Middle East.

Energy efficiency in Russia

Russia has enormous potential to increase its energy effi ciency. It suff ers from the lack of modern heating systemsin housing, outdated infrastructure and equipment in energy intensive industrial sectors, natural gasleaks from pipelines during transmission and distribution, and oil companies fl aring associated gas at theirwells. To address these problems, Russia should provide incentives to reduce fl aring, increase domestic pricesfor gas, breakup the Gazprom monopoly on the pipeline system, and improve the legal framework for internationalcooperation. Th e EU has only indirect levers on Russian domestic policy, so it should work to convinceRussia that reducing domestic demand serves both Russian and European interests, help Russia cashin on its effi ciency potential, and sponsor small-scale energy effi ciency projects that could encourage additionaleff orts at the grassroots level.